FireTax

FIRE planning mistakes

Early-retirement plans rarely fail on the savings rate. They fail on details nobody priced in. These are six that come up often, with the fix for each.

Figures are for the 2026 tax year.

Health insurance

Before Medicare at 65 you buy your own coverage, probably on the ACA marketplace. The enhanced premium credits expired after 2025. For 2026 the credit exists only up to 400% of the federal poverty level, and it ends in a cliff: $62,600 of MAGI for one person, $84,600 for a couple. Below the line you pay between about 2.10% and 9.96% of income toward the benchmark plan. Above it you pay the full premium.

Example: a couple with $84,600 of MAGI keeps the credit. At $84,601 they lose all of it. Budget the full premium plus the plan's out-of-pocket maximum, and treat any credit as upside.

Sequence risk

A 4% withdrawal rate can fail even when the average return is fine. A bad first five years is what breaks a plan: you sell more shares at low prices and the base never recovers. Keep two to three years of spending in cash or short-term bonds, and be ready to cut withdrawals or earn a little in a down year.

Locked-up money

If most of your savings sits in a traditional 401(k) or IRA, spending it before 59½ costs a 10% penalty on top of income tax. The fix is a Roth conversion ladder: convert a slice each year, wait five years, then withdraw the converted amount penalty-free. Since the first rung takes five years to mature, you need about five years of spending in taxable accounts, Roth IRA contributions, or cash before you quit.

Roth IRA contributions (not conversions or earnings) can be withdrawn at any time, which makes them the easiest bridge money.

Asset location

Bonds, REITs, and actively managed funds throw off income taxed at ordinary rates, up to 37%. Hold those inside the 401(k), IRA, or HSA. Keep broad index funds in the taxable account, where long-term gains and qualified dividends are taxed at 0% up to $49,450 of taxable income single ($98,900 joint) and 15% up to $545,500 ($613,700 joint). Many early retirees pay nothing on gains at all.

Spending creep

Free time costs money. Travel, hobbies, and house projects fill the hours work used to take. Build the FIRE number on a budget that includes them, then track actual spending for the first two years and adjust withdrawals if it runs high.

Beneficiaries and documents

Beneficiary designations on retirement accounts override your will, so check them every year. Have a will and a healthcare directive, and make sure your partner can find the accounts and understands the plan. With the federal estate exemption at $15,000,000 per person in 2026, this is about clarity for most people, not taxes.

Related